Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, November 30th

Monday’s bond market has opened down slightly despite early stock weakness and no relevant economic data to be concerned with. The major stock indexes are showing sizable losses, pushing the Dow down 303 points and the Nasdaq down 26 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32 (0.84%), but strength late Friday should allow this morning’s mortgage rates to be lower by approximately .125 of a discount point. If you saw an intraday improvement late Friday, you likely will see little change in this morning’s pricing.

2/32


Bonds


30 yr - 0.84%

303


Dow


29,606

26


NASDAQ


12,179

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High


Unknown


None

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for today. The rest of the week has four monthly economic reports for the markets to digest in addition to the Fed Beige Book and two congressional appearances by Fed Chairman Powell. Two of those four releases are considered to be highly important and can heavily affect the markets. There is a very strong chance of seeing an active week in the markets and mortgage rates.

High


Unknown


Fed Talk

Chairman Powell will kick-off this week’s activities tomorrow morning when he speaks before the Senate Banking Committee as part of the Coronavirus Aid Act. He is scheduled to appear at 10:00 AM ET, but he often releases his prepared statement before actually starting his testimony. The markets listen carefully anytime he speaks publicly, especially during congressional testimony. That means this event has the potential to be a market-mover, causing noticeable volatility in the financial and mortgage markets. He will do the same before the House Financial Service committee Wednesday morning.

High


Unknown


ISM Index (Institute for Supply Management)

November's Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index will be posted at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This index measures manufacturer sentiment and can have a considerable impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts call for a decline in sentiment from October’s reading, which was announced as 59.3. A weaker reading than the expected 57.8 would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. Anything above 50.0 means that more surveyed business executives felt business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened. The lower the reading the better the news it is for bonds because waning sentiment indicates a slowing manufacturing sector and makes broader economic growth less likely.

Medium


Unknown


None

Overall, Friday is the best candidate for most important day for rates due to the Employment report being released, but we should see noticeable movement in pricing multiple days, particularly tomorrow. The calmest day may Thursday unless there is a big surprise in the weekly unemployment figures. With such a busy week, watching the markets carefully would be a good idea if still floating an interest rate and closing soon.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.